Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Easy predictions !

Couple of years back when I used to blog at Rediff I had talked about how oil prices are going to shoot up (At that time I thought it would be around 80 $) and how India is going to have an issue of inflation at hand. And that the RBI would have to shift focus from a pure growth driven agenda to something more akin to inflation targeting. Though I had blogged about it, I never really thought things would turn up so rapidly within couple of years. Read here what one of my most illustrious alumni and one time chief economist of IMF & his committee advises.
Again, end of last year I had talked here about how the large I Banks are sitting on instruments whose risk is increasingly becoming difficult to predict, hedge or price. Within a year now, read here about both Citi and MS reporting some of the biggest quarterly losses in their history. (For MS the first of its kind!!)
This is not to say Im an economics Nostradamus. Just that somethings do come true (Id have predicted 100 things out of which 2 would have come true, so let me focus on those 2!! - the typical black swan problem / astrologers luck)
Maybe I should start predicting happy endings !! Like I would end up being a Lok Sabha MP in 10 years. (The highest paying job probably in India). I was just thinking after yesterday's tamasha, as to how much I would take to cross vote !!..Def 25 crore is huge money. I might take 3 crore for abstaining. How many of us are ethical enough /unselfish enough to say we would not take that kinda money ?....Is my character strong enough to say no to 3 crore rupees for not doing anything ?..If it is not, what has failed ?...Education ?..Value systems ?..Upbringing ?!!...Tough questions !

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